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tripartism

Yesterday we Clarín data and the Chair. Today, The Nation (which garnered praise for its strategy of hiring Polyarchy, which welcomed an institutional notice) figures CFK denies giving others, but confirms that the FPV is the first national force, followed by Pro With ACYS and other levels, Clarín points to the same side .

De Narváez starts ticking away with the PJ, Reutemann and winks to the presidency of Scioli. Some officials are beginning to suggest, off the record , the Lole will be the figure behind which will bring together Peronism. Suppose that the three musketeers entrench the center-right alliance of pejotismo are unmarked. The two-party system who died in 2001 will be generated then a tripartism, as CFK said.

With the book open passages between the PJ and the Pro, it will take a little longer so who is who (or not). There are high chances of a stage borocotista in the coming months. The panradicalismo is much more defined, although it could absorb progressives who do not share the Peronist palate.

The scheme has more balance than the previous because it has two non-Peronist forces, although not that much. And despite the capitalist crisis, does not show much left to say. But more likely than the previous Though that still remains to be seen.

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won

was sung. Old political fox, Cristina was left with the last word, without saying so openly, announced that it won the election. The Front for Victory won the most votes when all votes are counted. CFK was agreed yesterday that Argentina does not end in the suburbs. He counted them all and reached the magic number: 29.56% for the FPV, ahead of ACYS, which gained 29%, and the Pro, with 18.5% of the vote. What celebrations Mauritius, if you came third? What you Claríííín pasha?!

was sung. IndeK defended and criticized the media for not say that Macri lost votes in the capital, as they lost in Buenos Aires. And like her husband was gentle, quiet, reflective, institutional and intellectual (Nestor this not out) to say that not trying to "minimize" the defeat and congratulate all the winners. He even had the luxury of having intimacy and challenge a journalist and Sergio Massa ("should know the real quote).

This was not sung: van by Pino. Although not openly said to me it made it quite clarito when praise for the filmmaker, said that match unless he wants to "further deepen the change" is, but Kirchner, and also announced that they would seek new allies in Congress.

was sung. There will be changes in the cabinet. Paid and Nestor, a civic gesture that enhances unexpected against public opinion (do you see what is not so bad?). But is all there. The K not being delivered to anyone, least if that suggests a loss. Moreover, the President said there was no reason to make cabinet changes. If you came first! Great.

was sung. No one had to give up for dead and less marriage.

But I think some of the gestures that we saw in the last few hours did not show the essence of the K. Although we make one doubt. Seem so content, so rational, so good and fair, congratulating opponents, intellectualizing phenomena, undramatic. And it's rare. One remembers barking from the lectern, and wants there, hitting "To the horn", Clarín, the neoliberals and '90. But no, now play the good girl. And do not believe them. Maybe I'm wrong. But I think not.

Néstor Kirchner

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29-J

never answered so many questions from reporters like last night after admitting the harsh defeat in the province of Buenos Aires. Never, either, so often uttered the word "governance" when speaking in public. Never, either, had lost in Santa Cruz. Three data kirchnerismo beginning of the end.

good thing is that election was fair, and no one (for now) waived by the results.

ballotage going to be in 2011. Macri, Reutemann Cobos and appear, in view of all, as the leaders of the three forces (Pro, PJ and panradicalismo) that will fight for the Casa Rosada. But nobody is talking yet Eduardo Duhalde. The old leader is now facing a personal choice: can he wanted to anoint anoint the first in 2003 and told him no, or you can anoint anointed than ever but would not mind at all anointed. At stake is the device that Macri and De Narváz insulted yesterday (not quite understand why: at least some parts of that unit played for them).

The Pro can wean Peronize or permanently. I think (mildly, I must admit) that they will go for the second alternative. PJ Party is unified behind of Reutemann, partly behind Macri, under the banner of Pro

Let the other side. Imagine a gesture to step aside Carrió including opening the way to a formula-Cobos Binner. reloaded radicalism, the Agreement, stands as the third force in contention. The surprise is that it was the most voted yesterday. A surprise here said that even losing in BA and Capital, Kirchner was first in the country. We will see that they say today. Political

as Anibal Ibarra, Daniel Scioli, Celso Jaque, Daniel Peralta have been wounded almost to death (I say "almost" that's why she is not dead who fight). I am tempted to include Nestor Kirchner on this list, but prudence dictates that I do not: have to see how is reset after the defeat.

Seven out of ten voters voted for the opposition. The Prisoner was one of them, despite saying they deserved to lose. I hope you understand once and for all to give the country a viable alternative to the Peronist government, not the gritty fight for the hierarchy, is the best legacy we can leave to history.

leave for last the best. The two sentences that made history:

"The results are positive. I think the difference will be expanded. For us it was an excellent choice" (Aníbal Fernández, with the emergence of the evening)

"Our mouths urn are giving us six points above the formula De Narváez-Sola" (the media secretary, Enrique Albistur, justifying why it is better not to talk to the press)


CLARIFICATION: In the previous post Nestor criticized for violating the electoral ban. My friend warned me Gauyo error: the ban actually began on Friday morning. The Nestor sticks should have gone to CFK. The only time he spoke throughout the day was to violate the ban.

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electoral Veda

My computer says it is 12.11 am

was happy. He had started the electoral ban, and for the first time in three months I thought finally it was all over. And just this far, you see Freddy, disguised Néstor Kirchner Néstor Kirchner yell at, by telephone: "We are winning !!!". Néstor he retorted: "We will win !!!", and it then tells him that this" double ballot, working. "

Thus ends the season (when the ban had already begun).

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They deserve to lose

not have left from here, the criticism of many decisions taken by the Kirchner. Intervention to INDEC, the looting of the administrators, the witnesses, the conflict with the country ... I could go. But within hours of the end of the campaign, I can not help think that the opposition offers just that: an opposition. They deserve to lose. Let

. We have two partnerships with enough political clout to cope with Kirchner: Peronism dissent and radicalism reloaded. "Union-Pro" and "Civic and Social Agreement" are, in superficial, advertising constructions.

The two met with an interesting breeding ground to give the thud: recession, inflation, dengue, authoritarian leadership and irritating, a marked impairment in social, institutional and corruption cases unresolved. Obama had sparked a global wave and a local Alfonsín for change ... In short, a situation more favorable, if you will.

The opposition comes at the end of the season the hard way. Did you give

Union-Pro Pro profile of the campaign? No, ended up embroiled in the debate over what and how estatizarían privatized. Was there a big picture Cobos-Carrio-Prat-Gay-Stolbizer to show the "safe change" together? No, only a tentative picture of Cobos and Alfonsin. Does anyone campaigned with "(5, 10, 15 .., any number!) Proposals that would change everything?" Less. "They put on the ropes to Kirchner, forcing him to respond on thorny issues such as Indec, increasing poverty, debt, or the bag Antonini? Mildly.

This can result in the Sunday night show kirchnerismo better overall numbers than any opposition party, though none take a clear advantage. The contrast is the distribution of seats in Congress, which will be opposition. But still a fine contrast of political analysis. The number, which people look at the reality of the polls may show a triumphant Kirchner. And that seems a big shit.

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On the court does not

Latino faithful replica phenomenon of Russian tennis, Gisela Dulko not only play well and win in tennis (now cleaned to the very Sharapova at Wimbledon) but also flirts with her beauty and sensuality for the cameras. Of course when gripping the racket could say it's almost another person. But, look at the small contrast:

Nouriel Roubini

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Roubini proposed "prescription argento" for Latvia

If I lived in Argentina, would be a "maverick economist."

In a recent article in the Financial Times that the great guru of the global crisis got in his blog, Roubini lays out a very interesting parallel between Latvia and Argentina in 2000-01 (or Latvia, as preferred).

The flag of Latvia is equal to that of Argentina, but instead of blue, have red. Farming is an important part of the economy, fiscal and trade deficits have the debt represents around 70% of GDP (both measured in euros) and a fixed exchange rate between the lats, the local currency and the euro. Sound familiar? Some data: private debt is nominated primarily in euros, which would trigger a devaluation certainly a default chain. Sound familiar?

This Roubini explains in his column , which synthesizes a sort of escape plan: devaluation, "euroizar" the economy, restructure the debt and close a program with the IMF to mitigate the impact of adjustment. Except for this last point, the recipe Argentina with touches of style. What such?

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Iran

an hour ago that the display of America is dedicated exclusively to the "scandal" created by Kun Aguero's alleged affair with a blonde in the middle of preparations for the baptism of Benjamin, the son of him and Giannina Maradona. Either that or the rudeness of Gerardo Sofovich Monica Farro. Tonight will be the turn of Great Cuñado, prologue to a week in which the scattered political arguments on the hunt for undecided for Sunday program as possible.

Across the planet, thousands of men and women identified with the green color resist brutal repression and struggle for their freedom. The death of a 22 year old woman, Neda, spreads "To Susan Boyle" on the Internet, becomes the image of the struggle in Iran. And tell him the first martyr.

two worlds that have nothing to do are just a click away for all connected.

I'm not a fan of the conflicts in the Middle East, but there is an implicit message of the Iranian resistance that goes for any nation in the world: fear and lies as a means to exercise power and install dynasties have an expiration date. It does not last. The story gets tired of showing it. Everyone knows that there was fraud in Iran. Everyone knows that are killing people in Iran. Knowing this is the least we can do. Old

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The polarizing battle

racing driver, the man of three "P" struggle to avoid polarization in the province in one sentence: "Before or after 28 Peronists going to merge." Leader rising from his days at Boca, Macri retorts, but half: "I think it's possible that I made a fan of the Peronist River who are with me to get back together with Kirchner."

The choice is played. Kirchner wins or loses by a hair in Buenos Aires. But in the fight for beans, all trying to signal what will happen from 29. And what will happen is they will start to weave alliances in 2011. In the absence of proposals, Chicanas, the dirty moves the discussion on the model and the privatization of a decade ago, the poor voters should add to the decision they have to make another variable: how it plays your vote within two years.

The Prisoner, after a thorough analysis, has decided to vote for Civic and Social Agreement and encourages anyone who comes to this space to do so.

I think, as its campaign, which is a proposed change safer. I think at this point, you try Peronize Macri political space even more after 28 June. And I also believe that any peronization of an alternative that will end up polluting alternative, more attractive, efficient, interesting, fresh, novel, innovative, be strong and honest. Mauricio luck with the suburbs. Hope you do not live digest.

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planted a

won Pino Solanas, in my opinion, the first debate of the campaign. Clear, sharp, constant, loose, the film managed to get a light ahead of its direct competitor Carlos Heller (unpresentable). Regardless of whether one agrees or not with some of its pillars, pine was very good. If I had to choose a candidate just because of what I saw last night, I choose to Pino.

The debate left a curiosity: One of the alleged right-wing candidate, Alfonso Prat-Gay, left defending measures, such as implementing a universal benefit for children or increase spending. The said here: one of the most valuable qualities of PG is its pragmatism. Light

as of Michetti. Hesitant to respond to attacks, warm to defend management Macri, and nervous in the confrontation, mishandled "the gesture plane for the discussion (to be distracted by accommodating her blouse). In this also failed Heller. PG used good poker face, and Pino had the luxury of hot gestures accompanied by memorable phrases, such as that the Government lacks only trout the weather service.

It's really a shame that there are no more debates. Help, fun, generate a debate about the debate that raises civic participation and discussion on the country. A breath of fresh air to the incoherent obscenities are heard in the corners of Buenos Aires every day.

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The other poverty pinito

I want the morning is June 28. I want to finish Capano.

Chicanas of the candidates, the minutiae of the platforms, fighting middling gritty fight for "this does not" before "that yes, the lack of debate, everything reminds me of the enormous institutional poverty Argentina, which fell after three decades of being restored democracy. The other is poverty. And there is no way to solve real poverty, the millions of families who do not see, can not see beyond one day, without first solving it.

Someone, please, someone pull a project, someone to contribute ideas and make innovations to exceed hiring publicists and slogans of impact. What to say what they want to do, how they will do and how they will pay. And they do.

I think it is so difficult. But I also believe that attacking the core of the problem is a problem for decades and requires a commitment of the people supreme goodness, who have remained in the background, comfortable. It's time to go. Please go.

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